Don’t ever forget where you came from, but always be looking where you’re going.
Micky Malka (Capital Herder and Team Finder) on a recent conversation with Patrick O’Schaughnessy on Invest Like the Best podcast.
overheard
Overheard : India 1-2-3
Great discussion between Jim O’Shaughnessy and Sajith Pai on the India as a market in the Infinite Loops Podcast. Sajith did a great job describing India as a combination of three markets and not a monolithic market of 1.5 billion people.
India is not a 1.5-billion-person market that many Westerners believe. Instead, it’s three distinct “countries” hiding in plain sight. There’s India One: 120 million affluent, English-speaking urbanites (think the population of Germany) who love their iPhones and Starbucks. Then comes India Two: 300 million aspiring middle-class citizens who inhabit the digital economy but not yet the consumption economy. Finally, there’s India Three: a massive population with a similar demographic profile to Sub-Saharan Africa, that’s still waiting for its invitation to join India’s bright future.
Highly recommend checking out the podcast and this report (on Indus Valley – a play on words comparing the market in India to the tech market in Silicon valley) that Sajith and team put together.
On AI Agentic Workflows
Amazing conversation with Bret Taylor on agentic workflows leveraging AI in the enterprises. The whole conversation is worth listening to multiple times, but this specific segment where Bret speaks about the difference between traditional software engineering and AI driven solutions was thought provoking on how much change management organizations have to go through to adopt to these new solutions.
Now if you have parts of your system that are built on large language models, those parts are really different than most of the software that we’ve built on in the past. Number one is they’re relatively slow compared — to generate a page view on a website takes nanoseconds at this point, might be slightly exaggerating, down to milliseconds, even with the fastest models, it’s quite slow in the way tokens are emitted.
Number two is it can be relatively expensive. And again, it really varies based on the number of parameters in the model. But again, the marginal cost of that page view is almost zero at this point. You don’t think about it. Your cost as a software platform is almost exclusively in your head count. With AI, you can see the margin pressure that a lot of companies face, particularly of their training models or even doing inference with high-parameter-count models.
Number three is they’re nondeterministic fundamentally, and you can tune certain models to more reliably have the same output for the same input. But by and large, it’s hard to reproduce behaviors on these systems. What gives them creativity also leads to non-determinism.
And so this combination of it, we’ve gone from cheap, deterministic, reliable systems to relatively slow, relatively expensive but very creative systems. And I think it violates a lot of the conventions that software engineers think about — have grown to think about when producing software, and it becomes almost a statistical problem rather than just a methodological problem.
AI & Humans
AI will not replace humans but humans who use AI will replace humans that don’t – Dr. Fei-Fei Li
Overheard : Leadership
Leadership isn’t about being the hero. It’s about empowering your team to become heroes themselves.
Google Gemini
For folks that are driven, wired to see an issue and tackle it head-on, it is difficult to not jump in and “try” to help your team whenever they run into an issue. But the reality is that most folks are capable, creative individuals. They just need the space to flex their own problem-solving muscles.
If you team has the skills and experience, let them handle it :-).
Overheard : On brilliance
Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance
– Shane Parrish rewording Charlie Munger
Overheard : On wisdom
Wisdom is turning your future hindsight into your current foresight
– Shane Parrish
Overheard : On practice
A quote from Japanese philosophy repeated by Coach Paul Assaiante on practice
You cry in practice and you laugh in competition
Overheard : On action and feeling
The way we act determines how we feel way more often than the way we feel determines how we act.
Seth Godin, in a chat with Tim Ferriss